Saturday, December 26, 2015

OT-2015 Question 1 Answer -- Project Management

Answer available at:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6PHuk6I5SxbSWFfRDVoLUNXMlU/view?usp=sharing

If you have a different view and feel that it may be correct than post here is as comment.

For ready reference, question is pasted here:



  Work breakdown structure of a project is given below.

Activity
Immediate Predecessor
Expected activity time (days)
Activity time variance (days)^2
a
-
10
25
b
e, h
15
30
c
g, j
9
35
d
b
12
40
e
a
8
50
f
-
7
40
g
i
20
80
h
f
15
30
i
-
5
40
j
f
10
20
k
i
10
0
l
g, j, m
28
24
m
k
7
30
n
c
10
50

a)    Draw an activity-on-arrow network diagram and find the expected project completion time.                                                                                 2+2 marks
b)    What is the probability that this project will be completed within 65 days? 
2 marks
c)    A consultant has been asked to provide his expert services in activity d. He has been asked to report to the project office to start his work on day 52 from the start day of the project. What is the probability that he will have to wait (i.e. on his arrival, activity d is not ready for start)?                              8 marks
d)    At present, activity g involves some human intelligence. Variance of 80 is quite high. Suppose, this process is automated to bring the variance to 0 but the activity time increases to 25 days. What is the probability that this changed project will get over between 46 days and 70 days from the start of the project?                                                                                      6 marks

OT-2015 Question 2 Answer -- Forecasting

Answer available here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6PHuk6I5SxbUmxmb1lsRTVaQUU/view?usp=sharing

You can post your approach as comment here.

For ready reference, the question is pasted here:



.    Below table gives the actual and forecasted values of sales in first three months. Find the forecast for the 4th month using exponential smoothing method with smoothing factor 0.3.                                                                                       3 marks.
Month
1
2
3
Actual sales
50000
60000
50000
Forecasted sales
50000
50000
53000
 
               a) What weight is given to the first month actual sales data in forecasting the 4th month sales?                                                                                            4 marks
               b) What is the maximum value which can be assigned to smoothing factor? How will the forecast be affected in that case?                                             3 marks