Answer available here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6PHuk6I5SxbUmxmb1lsRTVaQUU/view?usp=sharing
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For ready reference, the question is pasted here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6PHuk6I5SxbUmxmb1lsRTVaQUU/view?usp=sharing
You can post your approach as comment here.
For ready reference, the question is pasted here:
. Below table
gives the actual and forecasted values of sales in first three months. Find the
forecast for the 4th month using exponential smoothing method with
smoothing factor 0.3.
3
marks.
|
Month
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
Actual
sales
|
50000
|
60000
|
50000
|
|
Forecasted
sales
|
50000
|
50000
|
53000
|
a)
What weight is given to the first month actual sales data in forecasting the 4th
month sales?
4 marks
b) What
is the maximum value which can be assigned to smoothing factor? How will the
forecast be affected in that case? 3
marks
Common mistakes and marks:
ReplyDeleteThere were some original and innovative approaches in finding the weight being given to the first month data while forecasting the 4th month sale. Some computed back the factor to the first month, some computed back the contribution of first month data, and some simply multiplied few factors to get the correct weight. All these got full marks.
Those who wrote weight as 0 got 0 marks. Arbitrary reasoning too got 0.
In very few cases students have described the trend in weights somewhat correctly but couldn’t get the idea to find that. These answers have got 1-2 marks.
For the maximum value of smoothing factor, 1 as answer and the forecast becoming equal to the previous actual fetched full marks. Answers like 0.9 or 0.99 with some arbitrary reasoning has been given 0-1.