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https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6PHuk6I5SxbSWFfRDVoLUNXMlU/view?usp=sharing
If you have a different view and feel that it may be correct than post here is as comment.
For ready reference, question is pasted here:
Work
breakdown structure of a project is given below.
Activity
|
Immediate Predecessor
|
Expected activity time (days)
|
Activity time variance (days)^2
|
a
|
-
|
10
|
25
|
b
|
e, h
|
15
|
30
|
c
|
g, j
|
9
|
35
|
d
|
b
|
12
|
40
|
e
|
a
|
8
|
50
|
f
|
-
|
7
|
40
|
g
|
i
|
20
|
80
|
h
|
f
|
15
|
30
|
i
|
-
|
5
|
40
|
j
|
f
|
10
|
20
|
k
|
i
|
10
|
0
|
l
|
g, j, m
|
28
|
24
|
m
|
k
|
7
|
30
|
n
|
c
|
10
|
50
|
a) Draw
an activity-on-arrow network diagram and find the expected project completion
time. 2+2
marks
b) What
is the probability that this project will be completed within 65 days?
2 marks
c) A
consultant has been asked to provide his expert services in activity d. He has
been asked to report to the project office to start his work on day 52 from the
start day of the project. What is the probability that he will have to wait (i.e.
on his arrival, activity d is not ready for start)? 8 marks
d) At
present, activity g involves some human intelligence. Variance of 80 is quite
high. Suppose, this process is automated to bring the variance to 0 but the
activity time increases to 25 days. What is the probability that this changed
project will get over between 46 days and 70 days from the start of the
project?
6
marks
