Question 2 (2014): Project Management (Probabilistic Situation)

Question 2:   The Work Breakdown Structure of a project is given in the following table.

Activity	Immediate Predecessors	Average Time in days	Variance
A	None	20	100
B	None	10	50
C	None	40	80
D	A	15	70
E	A	50	30
F	B	15	0
G	C	20	55
H	D	30	45
I	E	25	60
J	C,F	35	90
K	G	10	30
L	H	25	20
M	J,K	30	55

                                    

Only 115 days are available to complete this project. What is the probability that this project will get completed within the given time? What will be the impact on probability if another 10 days are added to the available time?                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 20 marks

Answer: Watch this Video

Question 3 (2014): Simulation

Question 3: Probability of a policy becoming claim policy is 0.2. The claim amount distribution in claim policies is given below:                                                                                                                           10 marks

0.4 probability for clam amount to be in Rs. 10000 to <= Rs. 30000 range,

0.35 probability for clam amount to be in Rs. 30000 to <= Rs. 70000 range,

0.25 probability for clam amount to be in Rs. 70000 to <= Rs. 130000 range,

Design an experiment to conduct Monte Carlo Simulation using random number range of 0 to 1.

Answer: Watch this video

Question 1 (2014): LP Formulation and Initial Basic Feasible Solution Table

Question 1: An organization provides 3 services – service A, service B and service C. Earning from these 3 services are Rs. 200, Rs. 150 and Rs. 250 respectively.  These services use some common resources – resource I, resource II, resource III and resource IV. The requirements of these resources in providing the services and their availabilities/ day are given in following table:                                 

	Service A	Service B	Service C		Availability
Resource I	25	20	40		1500
Resource II	35	30	25		2000
Resource III	15	35	20		3500
Resource IV	60	15	35		3000

The management also wants that the total number of services provided per day should be more than 25.

Formulate the Linear Programme to maximize the earning. Also prepare the initial basic feasible solution table for the Simplex Iteration.                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                20 marks

Answer: Watch this Video